Archive for the ‘Morning Call: Daily Analysis of the Global Markets and Economy’ Category
Morning Call: Greek Talks, Portugal Outlook, China India and Iran
____________________________
____________________________
“We are what our thoughts
have made us.”
Swami Vivekananda
January
31, 2012
Global Markets
It was a waiting game again yesterday, as stocks
dropped at the open but recovered to finish nearly flat in the session. The Dow
ended up just six points to the downside, after recovering most of a 100 point
drop during the early morning. More importantly, futures are pointing
comfortably higher this morning in response to positive developments in Europe.
At a summit in Brussels yesterday, European leaders signed an agreement which
moves them closer to fiscal coordination, which is seen by most as critical to
the survival of the Euro. 25/27 EU member states signed off on the agreement.
Other details of the agreement include the
establishment of a permanent €500 billion rescue fund and specific deficit
control measures promoted by Germany.
Meanwhile, in Greece, word is that discussions
between Greece and its creditors will wrap up by the end of the week. Although
many would suggest that a deal would be only a single step in a long process to
restore Greece’s financial health, it is nonetheless a critical element in
restoring some sense of confidence in the marketplace. Today we will also have
several key economic data points and earnings reports driving sentiment in the
markets.
The Asian indices moved modestly higher overnight.
The Nikkei saw a gain of just 0.11%, while the Shanghai Composite inched 0.33%
higher. In Hong Kong, a strong performance from coal mining stocks and banks
helped the Hang Seng outperform with an upside of 1.14%.
Stocks are comfortably higher in Europe this morning
as well. In London, the FTSE is up by 0.66%, Germany’s DAX has gained almost 1%,
and the French CAC is the leading performer with an upside of nearly 1.5%.
A sense of progress at the EU summit in Brussels
yesterday has helped boost sentiment quite a bit in Europe this morning. There
is still some apprehension regarding Greece, as a final agreement has not been
reached between Greece and its creditors. Talks will wrap up at the end of the
week according to reports and this will be another important step in restoring
some level of confidence in the markets.
Meanwhile, there has been some indication of
worsening conditions in Portugal and that this may be the next shoe to drop in
the European debt crisis.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold, like stocks,
suffered an early decline yesterday, but gained momentum in the afternoon to
finish at $1730. The morning trade has been a bit choppy but, nonetheless, Gold
has managed to tack on another $8 to $1738.
An interesting rumor has
emerged that India and China are secretly considering paying for Iranian oil in
gold, in order to bypass the European Union oil embargo on Iran, which is to
take effect July 1, 2012.
In the likelihood that
this proves false, and that progress continues to be made in Europe, it would
appear that there is still considerable downside risk for gold in the
near-term.
Reports out of Europe say negotiators are getting
closer to a deal between Greece and its private creditors and that we may see
an agreement by the end of the week. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that Greece has some work to do before assuring it
will receive another round of aid from the European community.
Energy and Commodities
With the Dollar a bit lower this morning, and
sentiment growing more positive in the marketplace, commodities have rebounded
to the upside.
Crude oil has surged more than 1.3% higher to
reach $100.07 again. In fact, the $100 mark as shown to be a level of
significant resistance and, as such, we may see some leveling off during the
day.
Traders will anxiously await the latest inventory
data this week after somewhat mixed results in the latest reports. Meanwhile,
it’s all about Europe and investors are a little more confident after a
relatively successful summit of European leaders yesterday in Brussels.
European leaders signed an agreement which moves
them closer to fiscal coordination, which is seen by most as critical to the
survival of the Euro. 25/27 EU member states signed off on the agreement.
Also impacting the energy markets will be rumors
that India and China may be considering ways of getting around the EU embargo
of Iranian oil, set to begin July 1. More than anything, this would certainly
change the overall impact of the embargo on Iran and in the energy markets.
Meanwhile, Iran says it is ready to
go back to the table to discuss its nuclear program and says it is the West but
that is unwilling to do so. Tensions with Iran continue to represent a factor
that could quickly impact the marketplace on any given day.
Uranium Investing
At least one industry
expert, Thomas Drolet, President of Drolet & Associates Energy Services,
says he sees a supply crisis in the uranium industry by about 2016. He points
out that long-standing supply is already dwindling and will be a growing issue
in the next year or so. In 2010, 118 million pounds of uranium was mined, while
global consumption was about 190 million pounds.
Uranium spot prices
remain generally unchanged at around $52, but there continues to be a lot of deal
activity within the industry.
China Guandong Nuclear
Power Corporation has upped its stake in Kalahari Minerals to nearly 30% as it
slowly moves toward a complete takeover
Elsewhere, Gold One
International has finally completed its $250 million acquisition of Rand
Uranium in a deal that was first announced back in May 2011. Gold One received
approval from South Africa’s
Department of Mineral Resources in late December 2011.
Elsewhere, Rio Tinto is
wrapping up its Hathor Exploration acquisition, by buying up the small
percentage of shares it did not already own. Rio
said it will then de-list Hathor from the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Shares in Russian-owned
miner Uranium One are on the rise after the company announced it had produced a
record 10.7-million pounds of the nuclear fuel in 2011, which is a 45% increase
from the prior year.
China’s Ministry of
Environmental Protection has put together a draft of new safety rules for its
nuclear industry. Once approved by the government, China may be ready to move ahead
with new nuclear projects. No details of the draft have been released, but the
ministry says that the new safety rules are “tougher” than earlier regulations.
Rare Earth Investing
In an effort to support softening rare earth
prices in the marketplace, China
has announced another cut in its rare earth export quotas. The Commerce
Ministry announced a 27% reduction in exports for the first half of 2012. It
should be noted, however, that China
actually fell short of its quota last year, as weakening global economic
conditions also reduced demand.
A new Energy Department report, however,
suggested that several critical rare earth elements would remain in short
supply in till at least 2015. The report highlighted dysprosium, terbium,
europium, neodymium and yttrium as the key elements to watch.
China’s Ganzhou Qiandong Rare
Earth Group has signed a joint venture agreement with Great Western Minerals
Group to develop a rare earth separation plant inSouth Africa.
Germanyis also getting into the
game. German miner Deutsche Rohstoff has said it will develop an estimated
deposit of 38,000 tons in eastern Germany. The subsidiary set up for
the rare Earth project received €2.2 million from German investors and plans a
public offering later this year. Exploratory drilling is planned in the Spring.
This
Molycorp recently announced that about 78% of its
Phase 1 rare-earth production at its Mountain
Pass, California
manufacturing facility has been committed. Having a product sold before it’s
reduced is certainly a positive development for any company. One thing that
remains in question for Molycorp is whether they will be able to process the
critical heavy rare earths that are likely to be in the greatest demand.
The future of rare earth
profits will lie largely in the heavy rare earths. This does pose a problem for
some would-be manufacturers, as the refining process is complex and expensive
and, as such, prohibitive to many junior miners. Molycorp, for one, has solid
potential in this arena but does not, as yet, possess the capability to process
the “heavies.” It could pose a $500-$600 Million problem that has not been
discussed openly.
Public Finance and Fixed
Income
Treasuries have retreated this morning, after yields
on 5-year debt fell to record lows yesterday. A sense of progress on resolving
the debt crisis in Europe has boosted sentiment in moving investors into
riskier assets.
At a summit in Brussels yesterday, European leaders
signed an agreement which moves them closer to fiscal coordination, which is
seen by most as critical to the survival of the Euro. 25/27 EU member states
signed off on the agreement.
Other details of the agreement include the
establishment of a permanent €500 billion rescue fund and specific deficit
control measures promoted by Germany.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned
that Greece has some work to do before assuring it will receive another round
of aid from the European community. Word out of Europe is that negotiators are
getting closer to a deal between Greece and its private creditors and that we
may see an agreement by the end of the week.
International Currencies
The Dollar has turned lower again this morning, on
rising optimism in the marketplace for a Greek debt deal and fiscal harmony in Europe.
At a summit in Brussels yesterday, European leaders
signed an agreement which moves them closer to fiscal coordination, which is
seen by most as critical to the survival of the Euro. 25/27 EU member states
signed off on the agreement.
Other details of the agreement include the
establishment of a permanent €500 billion rescue fund and specific deficit
control measures promoted by Germany.
Meanwhile, in Greece, word is that discussions
between Greece and its creditors will wrap up by the end of the week.
All of this has given a boost to the Euro this
morning, leaving it to a gain of about 0.35% on the Dollar. The British Pound
is up by more than 0.4% against the greenback. The Dollar has gained slightly
on the Yen, as investors turn away from the traditional safe havens.
Economic News & Corporate Earnings
Economic
Data:
- Employment Cost
Index - Case Shiller Home
Price Index - Chicago PMI
- Consumer
Confidence
Earnings
Calendar:
- Ace
- Aflac
- Avery Dennison
- Biogen Idec
- Broadcom
- Eli Lilly
- Exxon Mobil
- Helmerich & Payne
- Mattel
- McGraw-Hill
- Pfizer
- UPS
- Valero Energy
The
assembled information disseminated in the Morning Call is for information
purposes only, and is neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell
securities. All assembled information within the Morning Call is subject to
change without notice. The assembled information within Morning Call is based
on information believed to be reliable as of the date of the report but no
representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness.
Forward
Looking Statements:
Information in the Morning Call will contain “forward looking
statements” as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All readers are advised to
conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a
purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock
performance or portfolio performance is no guarantee of future price
appreciation or performance
Morning Call: Greece, Davos, Brussels
_______________________________
_______________________________
“There are two sides to
every question.”
Protagoras
January
30, 2012
Global Markets
The Dow closed the week 74 with a loss of 74 points.
Futures are pointing lower this morning,
over renewed concern for Greece and whether it can resolve its debt crisis. German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that Greece has some work to do
before assuring it will receive another round of aid from the European
community. Word out of Europe is that negotiators are getting closer to a deal
between Greece and its private creditors and that we may see an agreement by the
end of the week.
Stocks moved lower in Asia overnight, as some
traders were returning for the first time in a week after a holiday. The Nikkei
trimmed 0.54%, the Hang Seng 1.66%, and the Shanghai Composite fell 1.41%. The
markets in Asia are largely focused on Europe as well, in addition to some
sense of disappointment over the lack of any policy announcements in China. Many
had thought that recent signs of slowing would lead Chinese authorities to
introduce easing measures in support of growth, which hasn’t happened yet.
In Europe this morning, bank stocks are leading the markets
lower, as traders await details on progress in Greece. At mid-morning, all of
the major indices are lower by a little more than 0.8%. EU officials arrive
this afternoon in Brussels for a summit, where the leading topic will be, of
course, Greece.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold has been trending
lower as the Dollar gains ground on rising safe-haven demand. After giving up
another $13 in early trading, gold is now resting at $1724.
Reports out of Europe say negotiators are getting
closer to a deal between Greece and its private creditors and that we may see
an agreement by the end of the week. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that Greece has some work to do before assuring it
will receive another round of aid from the European community.
What we have here are growing prospects for
long-term debasement of global fiat currencies, which is leading some investors
to see gold is the only viable alternative for while. Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King also hinted this week that the BoE stood ready to increase its bond
purchases if need be, after new data in the UK showed fourth quarter GDP had
contracted by 0.2% from the prior quarter.
The World Gold Council, in its quarterly commentary,
pointed out that historically, a strong pullback like we saw at the end of 2011
typically precedes another strong rally for gold. The report also noted that
gold holding exchange traded funds built up their positions in the fourth
quarter.
Energy and Commodities
Commodities are considerably lower this morning, the
Dollar strengthens on growing demand for safety. Many traders are in a holding
pattern waiting for clear direction as economic data, and the situation inEurope, continues to leave some doubt.
Crude oil is another 0.54% lower this morning at
$99.02. The prospects for an extended period of easy money from the Fed
provided a bit of a boost to the energy markets last week, although the latest inventory data was a bit vague, and
disappointing in some respects.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report showed a
surprising decline 3.44 million barrels, after Tuesday’s API report showed an
increase of 7.33 million barrels in US crude inventories. Gasoline stockpiles
grew by another 3.72 million barrels; a third consecutive increase. The API
numbers showed a drop of 573,000 barrels.
Meanwhile, Iransays it is ready to go back to
the table to discuss its nuclear program and says it is the West but that is unwilling
to do so. Tensions with Iran
continue to represent a factor that could quickly impact the marketplace on any
given day.
Uranium Investing
At least one industry
expert, Thomas Drolet, President of Drolet & Associates Energy Services,
says he sees a supply crisis in the uranium industry by about 2016. He points
out that long-standing supply is already dwindling and will be a growing issue
in the next year or so. In 2010, 118 million pounds of uranium was mined, while
global consumption was about 190 million pounds.
Uranium spot prices
remain generally unchanged at around $52, but there continues to be a lot of deal
activity within the industry.
China Guandong Nuclear
Power Corporation has upped its stake in Kalahari Minerals to nearly 30% as it
slowly moves toward a complete takeover
Elsewhere, Gold One
International has finally completed its $250 million acquisition of Rand
Uranium in a deal that was first announced back in May 2011. Gold One received
approval from South Africa’s
Department of Mineral Resources in late December 2011.
Elsewhere, Rio Tinto is
wrapping up its Hathor Exploration acquisition, by buying up the small
percentage of shares it did not already own. Rio
said it will then de-list Hathor from the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Shares in Russian-owned
miner Uranium One are on the rise after the company announced it had produced a
record 10.7-million pounds of the nuclear fuel in 2011, which is a 45% increase
from the prior year.
China’s Ministry of
Environmental Protection has put together a draft of new safety rules for its
nuclear industry. Once approved by the government, China may be ready to move ahead
with new nuclear projects. No details of the draft have been released, but the
ministry says that the new safety rules are “tougher” than earlier regulations.
Rare Earth Investing
In an effort to support softening rare earth
prices in the marketplace, China
has announced another cut in its rare earth export quotas. The Commerce
Ministry announced a 27% reduction in exports for the first half of 2012. It
should be noted, however, that China
actually fell short of its quota last year, as weakening global economic
conditions also reduced demand.
A new Energy Department report, however,
suggested that several critical rare earth elements would remain in short
supply in till at least 2015. The report highlighted dysprosium, terbium,
europium, neodymium and yttrium as the key elements to watch.
China’s Ganzhou Qiandong Rare
Earth Group has signed a joint venture agreement with Great Western Minerals
Group to develop a rare earth separation plant inSouth Africa.
Germanyis also getting into the
game. German miner Deutsche Rohstoff has said it will develop an estimated
deposit of 38,000 tons in eastern Germany. The subsidiary set up for
the rare Earth project received €2.2 million from German investors and plans a
public offering later this year. Exploratory drilling is planned in the Spring.
This
Molycorp recently announced that about 78% of its
Phase 1 rare-earth production at its Mountain
Pass, California
manufacturing facility has been committed. Having a product sold before it’s
reduced is certainly a positive development for any company. One thing that
remains in question for Molycorp is whether they will be able to process the
critical heavy rare earths that are likely to be in the greatest demand.
The future of rare earth
profits will lie largely in the heavy rare earths. This does pose a problem for
some would-be manufacturers, as the refining process is complex and expensive
and, as such, prohibitive to many junior miners. Molycorp, for one, has solid
potential in this arena but does not, as yet, possess the capability to process
the “heavies.” It could pose a $500-$600 Million problem that has not been
discussed openly.
Public Finance and Fixed
Income
Treasuries are moving higher again this morning, with
yields falling to fresh new lows. Renewed uncertainty over Greece has led to
new demand for safe-haven assets, once again.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned
that Greece has some work to do before assuring it will receive another round
of aid from the European community. Word out of Europe is that negotiators are
getting closer to a deal between Greece and its private creditors and that we
may see an agreement by the end of the week.
New data in Europe also shows a decline in private
lending, which is something economists have been concerned with and watchful
for; fearing the possibility of a damaging credit crunch.
In Europe, there seems to have been some progress on
the Greek debt swap deal. Reports have surfaced that private bondholders have
agreed to take slightly lower rates on the new long-term bonds they receive.
They originally called for a rate of 4%, which European finance ministers
essentially rejected. Private sector creditors will now put forth a proposal in
which the average yield will be 3.75%.
International Currencies
The Dollar is much stronger again this morning. As renewed
uncertainty over Greece has led to new demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
The Dollar is up by nearly 1% on the Euro and only
0.35% on the British Pound.
At the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting last
week, Chairman Bernanke said
rates would likely remain at near zero for three more years, and hinted that
the Fed stood ready to initiate further quantitative easing if necessary. “We
need to be thinking about ways to provide further stimulus if we don’t get improvement
in the pace of recovery and a normalization of inflation,” Bernanke told
reporters at a news conference.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King also hinted
last week that the BoE stood ready to increase its bond purchases if need be,
after new data in the UK showed fourth quarter GDP had contracted by 0.2% from
the prior quarter.
Economic News & Corporate Earnings
Economic
Data:
- Personal Income
and Outlays
Earnings
Calendar:
- Advanced Energy Industries
- Gannett Co
- Navarre
- Plum Creek Timber
The
assembled information disseminated in the Morning Call is for information
purposes only, and is neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell
securities. All assembled information within the Morning Call is subject to
change without notice. The assembled information within Morning Call is based
on information believed to be reliable as of the date of the report but no
representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness.
Forward
Looking Statements:
Information in the Morning Call will contain “forward looking
statements” as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All readers are advised to
conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a
purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock
performance or portfolio performance is no guarantee of future price
appreciation or performance
Morning Call: Home Sales, Spanish Unemployment, US GDP
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
“I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or
more is a congress.”
John Adams
January
27, 2012
Global Markets
USstocks sagged in the second half of the session
yesterday; leaving the Dow with a modest loss of 22 points. A pullback in bank
and tech shares, which have posted strong gains so far in January, weighed on the
markets, after disappointing data on new home sales. Concern over whether a
Greek debt swap deal will come to fruition also weighed on sentiment and led
investors toward the safety of US Treasuries and German debt.
New home sales fell 2.2% in December, while many
analysts had hoped for a slight increase. On a brighter note, durable goods
orders rose more than expected.
Futures point slightly lower this morning, ahead of
another important round of economic and earnings data. The key piece of data
that could impart impact the markets considerably is the fourth-quarter GDP
number. The mean analyst expectation is for around 3% growth, but estimates
vary anywhere from 2.5% to 4.5%.
Asia’s
stock markets stayed in a tight range as well, with a mixed performance among
the regional indices. The Nikkei fell by just eight points, while the Hang Seng
inched 0.3% to the upside. Although it is but a shortened trading week in Hong Kong, this marked the sixth consecutive positive
finish for the Hang Seng. Gains for banking shares were offset by a down day
for property developers.
Stocks are drifting along the flat-line in Europethis morning as well. Some weakness among Bank shares
and mining stocks has left the FTSE 0.3% to the downside at mid-day. The French
CAC has seen similar losses, while the German DAX has set its own pace without
upside of 0.15%.
There have been a lot of mixed signals coming out of
Europe this morning, which has kept investors
on the edge of their seats. Olli Rehn, Commissioner of European Union Economic
and Monetary Affairs, said that the parties involved in a Greek debt swap deal
are very close to reaching an agreement, but also said “the next three days
will be very crucial.”
New data in Europe
also shows a decline in private lending, which is something economists have
been concerned with and watchful for; fearing the possibility of a damaging
credit crunch.
Italysuccessfully sold €11 billion ($14.5 billion) in
debt at auction today, at substantially lower yields. Unemployment in Spain, on the other hand, climbed to 22.9%; its highest
level in 15 years.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold appears to be in a bit of a
consolidation period, as prices inched nearly $10 higher again yesterday and
have leveled off a bit. With a slight $3 gain this morning, gold is now trading
at $1723, its highest level in about 6 weeks.
It’s all about easy money, after Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke said it would likely be another three years of near-zero interest rate
policy for the Fed. Bernanke also hinted that he had his finger on the trigger
to initiate further quantitative easing if necessary.
What we have here are growing prospects for
long-term debasement of global fiat currencies, which is leading some investors
to see gold is the only viable alternative for while. Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King also hinted this week that the BoE stood ready to increase its bond
purchases if need be, after new data in the UK showed fourth quarter GDP had
contracted by 0.2% from the prior quarter.
The World Gold Council, in its quarterly commentary,
pointed out that historically, a strong pullback like we saw at the end of 2011
typically precedes another strong rally for gold. The report also noted that
gold holding exchange traded funds built up their positions in the fourth
quarter.
Energy and Commodities
Commodities are little more mixed this morning, despite
some underlying weakness on the Dollar. Many traders are in a holding pattern
waiting for clear direction as economic data, and the situation inEurope, continues to leave some doubt.
Crude oil has begun to see a tighter trading
range as well; itching about 0.5% higher this morning to $100.19. The prospects
for an extended period of easy money from the Fed provided a bit of a boost to
the energy markets this week. On the other hand, this week’s inventory data was
a bit vague, and disappointing in some respects.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report showed a
surprising decline 3.44 million barrels, after Tuesday’s API report showed an
increase of 7.33 million barrels in US crude inventories. Gasoline stockpiles
grew by another 3.72 million barrels; a third consecutive increase. The API
numbers showed a drop of 573,000 barrels.
Meanwhile, Iransays it is ready to go back to
the table to discuss its nuclear program and says it is the West but that is
unwilling to do so. Tensions with Iran continue to represent a factor
that could quickly impact the marketplace on any given day.
Uranium Investing
At least one industry
expert, Thomas Drolet, President of Drolet & Associates Energy Services,
says he sees a supply crisis in the uranium industry by about 2016. He points
out that long-standing supply is already dwindling and will be a growing issue
in the next year or so. In 2010, 118 million pounds of uranium was mined, while
global consumption was about 190 million pounds.
Uranium spot prices
remain generally unchanged at around $52, but there continues to be a lot of deal
activity within the industry.
China Guandong Nuclear
Power Corporation has upped its stake in Kalahari Minerals to nearly 30% as it
slowly moves toward a complete takeover
Elsewhere, Gold One
International has finally completed its $250 million acquisition of Rand
Uranium in a deal that was first announced back in May 2011. Gold One received
approval from South Africa’s
Department of Mineral Resources in late December 2011.
Elsewhere, Rio Tinto is
wrapping up its Hathor Exploration acquisition, by buying up the small
percentage of shares it did not already own. Rio
said it will then de-list Hathor from the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Shares in Russian-owned
miner Uranium One are on the rise after the company announced it had produced a
record 10.7-million pounds of the nuclear fuel in 2011, which is a 45% increase
from the prior year.
China’s Ministry of
Environmental Protection has put together a draft of new safety rules for its
nuclear industry. Once approved by the government, China may be ready to move ahead
with new nuclear projects. No details of the draft have been released, but the
ministry says that the new safety rules are “tougher” than earlier regulations.
Rare Earth Investing
In an effort to support softening rare earth
prices in the marketplace, China
has announced another cut in its rare earth export quotas. The Commerce
Ministry announced a 27% reduction in exports for the first half of 2012. It
should be noted, however, that China
actually fell short of its quota last year, as weakening global economic
conditions also reduced demand.
A new Energy Department report, however,
suggested that several critical rare earth elements would remain in short
supply in till at least 2015. The report highlighted dysprosium, terbium,
europium, neodymium and yttrium as the key elements to watch.
China’s Ganzhou Qiandong Rare
Earth Group has signed a joint venture agreement with Great Western Minerals
Group to develop a rare earth separation plant inSouth Africa.
Germanyis also getting into the
game. German miner Deutsche Rohstoff has said it will develop an estimated
deposit of 38,000 tons in eastern Germany. The subsidiary set up for
the rare Earth project received €2.2 million from German investors and plans a
public offering later this year. Exploratory drilling is planned in the Spring.
This
Molycorp recently announced that about 78% of its
Phase 1 rare-earth production at its Mountain
Pass, California
manufacturing facility has been committed. Having a product sold before it’s
reduced is certainly a positive development for any company. One thing that
remains in question for Molycorp is whether they will be able to process the
critical heavy rare earths that are likely to be in the greatest demand.
The future of rare earth
profits will lie largely in the heavy rare earths. This does pose a problem for
some would-be manufacturers, as the refining process is complex and expensive
and, as such, prohibitive to many junior miners. Molycorp, for one, has solid
potential in this arena but does not, as yet, possess the capability to process
the “heavies.” It could pose a $500-$600 Million problem that has not been
discussed openly.
Public Finance and Fixed
Income
Treasuries have pulled back after a two day rally, ahead of
today’s US GDP data. Analysts expect to see growth of about 3% in the fourth
quarter, although estimates vary considerably.
Italysuccessfully sold €11 billion ($14.5 billion) in
debt at auction today, at substantially lower yields. Unemployment in Spain,
on the other hand, climbed to 22.9%; its highest level in 15 years. Uncertainty
in Europe has led German bunds higher fro
three consecutive sessions.
New data in Europe
also shows a decline in private lending, which is something economists have
been concerned with and watchful for; fearing the possibility of a damaging
credit crunch.
Chairman Bernanke pledged to keep rates low for at least three more years, and hinted that the Fed stood ready to initiate further quantitative easing if necessary. “We need to be thinking about ways to provide further stimulus if we don’t get improvement in the pace of recovery and a normalization of inflation,” Bernanke told reporters at a news conference. Prospects for the Fed purchasing more bonds, has added some support to Treasuries.
In Europe, there
seems to have been some progress on the Greek debt swap deal. Reports have
surfaced that private bondholders have agreed to take slightly lower rates on
the new long-term bonds they receive. They originally called for a rate of 4%,
which European finance ministers essentially rejected. Private sector creditors
will now put forth a proposal in which the average yield will be 3.75%.
International Currencies
The Dollar continues to drift lower this morning on the
back of safe haven demand and prospects for an extended easy money policy from the
Fed. At
the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, Chairman Bernanke said rates would likely remain at near zero
fro three more years, and hinted that the Fed stood ready to initiate further
quantitative easing if necessary. “We need to be thinking about ways to provide
further stimulus if we don’t get improvement in the pace of recovery and a
normalization of inflation,” Bernanke told reporters at a news conference.
The Dollar is about 0.22% lower on the Euro and just
0.09% down on the British Pound.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King also hinted
this week that the BoE stood ready to increase its bond purchases if need be,
after new data in the UK showed fourth quarter GDP had contracted by 0.2% from
the prior quarter.
Economic News & Corporate Earnings
Economic
Data:
- US GDP
- Consumer
Sentiment
Earnings
Calendar:
- Altria Group
- Chevron
- Dominion Resources
- Ford Motor Company
- Honeywell
- Legg Mason
- Procter & Gamble
The
assembled information disseminated in the Morning Call is for information
purposes only, and is neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell
securities. All assembled information within the Morning Call is subject to
change without notice. The assembled information within Morning Call is based
on information believed to be reliable as of the date of the report but no
representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness.
Forward
Looking Statements:
Information in the Morning Call will contain “forward looking
statements” as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All readers are advised to
conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a
purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock
performance or portfolio performance is no guarantee of future price
appreciation or performance


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